Hey Team 👋

Round 1 of the CFP kicks off on Friday. While the top four seeds (Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech) have first-round byes, we get to see the remaining eight teams battle it out on a do-or-die slate. From an SEC rematch under the lights to potential blowouts with upset potential, the opening weekend has no shortage of intrigue.

Letter Rip!

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CFP Round 1 Matchups

#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Alabama — Friday, Dec. 19, 8:00 PM

We only get one playoff game on Friday, but it may be the best matchup of the whole weekend. Alabama and Oklahoma square off in primetime in an epic SEC showdown. Alabama is favored by 1.5 points, but Oklahoma already beat the Tide earlier this season. 

Now comes the real question: Was that loss a wake-up call for Alabama or proof that Oklahoma has their number? Either way, the winner won’t get much time to celebrate — No. 1 Indiana awaits in the Rose Bowl.

#7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Miami — Saturday, Dec. 20, 12:00 PM

Friday’s SEC rematch will be a tough act to follow, but Texas A&M and Miami should have no problem keeping the momentum going. The Aggies are slight 2.5-point favorites, but predictions are split across the board. 

Texas A&M started the season 11-0 and were poised to play in the SEC Championship — until Texas handed them a brutal loss. Maybe it was a rivalry week fluke, or maybe it was the beginning of the end. Miami enters with confidence after a dominant 38–7 rivalry win over Pitt, but the Hurricanes haven’t exactly been flawless either. 

Something has to give: Can the Aggies reassert themselves, or will the Hurricanes continue their late-season surge? The winner punches a ticket to the Cotton Bowl to face No. 2 Ohio State.

#6 Ole Miss vs. #11 Tulane — Saturday, Dec. 20, 3:30 PM

Now, here’s where the spreads start to widen. While the first two playoff games are expected to be relatively tight, Ole Miss is favored to win by 17.5 points. But this matchup may not be as straightforward as it looks. 

Yes, the Rebels have been dominant this season. But keep in mind, they’ve had Lane Kiffin at the helm. For the first time all season, Kiffin is gone and Ole Miss will try to find its footing under a new head coach. Tulane, meanwhile, enters as a conference champion after a 34–21 win over North Texas and will retain Jon Sumrall throughout its CFP run.

There’s no question Ole Miss has more talent on the roster, but don’t underestimate the importance of coaching and stability in the playoffs. The winner moves on to face No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

#5 Oregon vs. #12 James Madison — Saturday, Dec. 20, 7:30 PM

On paper, this is the most lopsided game of the first round. Oregon is favored by 21.5 points, and frankly, the Ducks dominate James Madison in nearly every measurable category — most notably, strength of schedule. 

Oregon faced four ranked teams during the regular season, suffering its only loss to No. 1 Indiana. JMU, on the other hand, has not faced any ranked teams all year. Oregon should advance to the Orange Bowl to face No. 4 Texas Tech. But if college football has taught me anything over the past two decades, it’s this: The CFP has a way of humbling assumptions. Count JMU out at your own risk.