Hey Team 👋

It’s finally here: the most exciting (and stressful) time of year. If you haven’t done your fantasy draft already, chances are you’ve been doomscrolling every site looking for the “perfect” advice. Stop now – you’ve got the guide you need.

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Fantasy Football Draft Guide

If you’re drafting in the top four, congratulations. Your pick is basically made for you. But if you’re sitting at No. 5 or later? That’s where things get tricky. The board is stacked with talent this season, which means every choice feels like a coin flip, and watching the guy you didn’t draft go off in Week 1 can sting. That’s the reality of fantasy.

Regardless of where you’re picking, you’ll want to follow a few cardinal rules of drafting:

Don’t draft a quarterback in the first round. Seriously, just don’t. I don’t care if you’re Joe Burrow’s biggest fan or if you think Jayden Daniels could win the whole league for you this year. A QB in the first round is never going to get you where you need to be – even if he is putting up 30+ points per game. And yet, every year, there’s always that one person who just has to have the best QB in the league and won’t risk losing him. I promise, even if you do lose him, you’ll find someone else who can put up solid numbers to support your team. Do you know who you won’t find? A first-round-caliber running back or wide receiver who can put up the points you need. If your RB or WR is only getting you six points a week, who cares if your QB is getting you 40? It’s not sustainable, and you’re going to end up being the punchline of your league. As tempting as it may be, just don’t do it.

Don’t cling to familiarity. I know firsthand how tempting it can be to stick to your guns and draft a player you’ve had before. That temptation grows even stronger if he carried you last season. But don’t be afraid to branch out and take a guy you’re not as familiar with. The NFL changes every year, and teams are constantly evolving. Sam Darnold in Seattle may not be the same as Sam Darnold in Minnesota. Likewise, just because CeeDee Lamb had a solid season in Dallas last year doesn’t mean he’ll see the same target share now that George Pickens is in the mix. Now, this is not to say to avoid these players. In fact, Darnold is playing in a system that favors his talents and Lamb may be more productive despite a lower target share because he won’t be double-teamed. But the moral of the story? Past performance ≠ future results. Look at the stats, look at the team dynamics and take a risk. 

Don’t Draft Based on Byes. I get it: Seeing three “Week 9” byes in your lineup can be scary, but don’t let that steer you off a great pick. One bad week 10 games from now is not worth sabotaging the rest. Plus, every good fantasy football player knows that if you play the waiver wire or trade correctly, you can avoid that disaster entirely. 

Do Draft According to Your League Setup. If you’re in multiple leagues with different rules, preparing for drafting season can be tricky. A standard league looks totally different from a PPR league, and don’t even get me started on half-point PPR. If you’re drafting in a standard league, look for explosive players. You want difference-makers. Guys who score touchdowns and get plenty of yardage will do just fine. If you’re in PPR, you want volume. If you have an option between the guy who catches a 50-yard pass or two a game and a guy who gets 10 catches for 80 yards, take the guy who gets more catches. You’re looking for a guy who has a high floor, regardless of his ceiling. Touchdowns are always a nice surprise, but you can’t rely on them in PPR.

Now that we’ve covered the basics, it’s time to get down to the real advice: the names I’m avoiding until they fall into value territory. While it may be tough to figure out who to draft this season, it’s a bit easier to focus on who to avoid:

Tyreek Hill

Hill isn’t washed, but don’t reach. Last year he battled injuries, Tua still hasn’t proven long-term consistency and Hill seemed done with Miami by the end of last season. He’ll produce, but probably not at the elite WR1 level people are still drafting him for.

Breece Hall

Hall was hyped as a PPR cheat code last year, but the results didn’t match. He’ll get volume in New York, but unless Justin Fields transforms the offense, his ceiling looks capped. At his draft cost, you’re better off targeting steadier RBs going in the same range.

Rachaad White

Raise your hand if you felt personally victimized by Todd Bowles last season. Yeah, me too. I fell for the Rachaad White propaganda. But if last season taught us anything, it’s the Bucky Irving show in Tampa Bay. And that’s okay. White will still see touches, but don’t expect him to suddenly morph into a workhorse.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Rookie hype burned us last year, and while Harrison is supremely talented, the Cardinals’ offense won’t make it easy. With little depth outside of him and Trey McBride, defenses will key in. He could break out, but don’t pay WR1 prices on the same hope as last season.

The Bottom Line

Draft night is just the start. Sticking to a smart strategy matters way more than nailing one flashy pick. Don’t panic, don’t reach and don’t chase names from last year’s highlight reel. Build a balanced roster, attack waivers and remember: No one actually wins their league at the draft.