Hey Team 👋

The playoff picture is finally coming into focus, and the path to December’s Conference Championship weekend is clearer, but far from settled. Every contender still has boxes to check, obstacles to dodge, and make-or-break matchups ahead. And for now, we’re zeroing in on the Power Conferences, breaking down the championship scenarios that shape the national race. Consider this your guide to the field: the favorites, the spoilers, the must-watch games, and every scenario that needs to unfold for each team to earn its spot in a conference title showdown.

Letter Rip!

< CFB >

Week 14 AP Poll & The Conference Championship Guide

After a quiet week in college football, the rankings have remained relatively stable as we head into rivalry week. The top contenders in each conference are preparing for Conference Championship Week, but they still have one final test. While some matchups may seem like cakewalks on paper, rivalry week always brings a special brand of chaos, which could shake up conference championships and the playoff picture entirely.

AP Top 25

1. Ohio State (🟰)

2. Indiana (🟰)

3. Texas A&M (🟰)

4. Georgia (🟰)

5. Oregon (⬆️1)

6. Ole Miss (⬇️1)

7. Texas Tech (⬇️1)

8. Oklahoma (🟰)

9. Notre Dame (🟰)

10. Alabama (🟰)

11. BYU (🟰)

12. Vanderbilt (🟰)

13. Miami (⬆️1)

14. Utah (⬇️1)

15. Michigan (⬆️3)

16. Texas (⬆️1)

17. Virginia (⬆️2)

18. Tennessee (⬆️2)

19. USC (⬇️3)

20. James Madison (⬆️1)

21. North Texas (⬆️1)

22. Tulane (⬆️2)

23. Georgia Tech (⬇️8)

24. Pittsburgh (not previously ranked) 

25. SMU (not previously ranked)

Week 14 Matchups (Rivalry Week)

#6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (MISS -6.5)

Iowa at Nebraska (IOWA -6.5)

#4 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (UGA -13.5)

#3 Texas A&M at #16 Texas (TA&M -2.5)

Arizona at Arizona State (ARIZ -1.5)

#1 Ohio State at #15 Michigan (OSU -9.5)

#13 Miami at #24 Pittsburgh (MIA -6.5)

Houston at Baylor (BAY -2.5)

#5 Oregon at Washington (ORE -6.5)

#12 Vanderbilt at #18 Tennessee (TENN -2.5)

Wake Forest at Duke (DUKE -1.5)

Cincinnati at TCU (TCU -4.5)

#10 Alabama at Auburn (ALA -6.5)

ACC

• The Contenders: #17 Virginia (6-1), #25 SMU (6-1), #24 Pittsburgh (6-1), #23 Georgia Tech (6-2), Duke (5-2), #13 Miami (5-2)

• Key Matchups: Virginia Tech at #17 Virginia, #13 Miami at #24 Pittsburgh, Wake Forest at Duke

• Conference Championship Scenarios:

  • Virginia = win

  • SMU = win

  • Pittsburgh = win + Virginia or SMU loss

  • Two-loss teams could get into a tiebreaker, which may be decided by strength of in-conference schedule

• Favorite: SMU (+130)

Big 12

• The Contenders: #7 Texas Tech (7-1), #11 BYU (7-1), #14 Utah (6-2), Arizona State (6-2)

• Key Matchups: #14 Utah at Kansas, Arizona at Arizona State, UCF at #11 BYU

• Conference Championship Scenarios:

  • Texas Tech = win or Arizona State loss

  • BYU = win or Arizona State loss

  • Utah = win + Texas Tech loss + wins by BYU and Arizona State

  • Arizona State = win + BYU loss or win + losses by Texas Tech and Utah

• Favorite: Texas Tech (-400)

Big 10

• The Contenders: #1 Ohio State (8-0), #2 Indiana (8-0), #5 Oregon (7-1), #15 Michigan (7-1)

• Key Matchups: #1 Ohio State at Michigan, #5 Oregon at Washington

• Conference Championship Scenarios:

  • Ohio State win over Michigan = Ohio State vs. Indiana (even with Indiana loss)

  • In the case of an Ohio State loss:

    • Indiana win + Oregon loss = Indiana vs. Michigan

    • Oregon win + Indiana loss = Michigan vs. Oregon

    • Oregon loss + Indiana loss = Michigan vs. Ohio State

• Favorite: Ohio State (-145)

SEC

• The Contenders: #3 Texas A&M (7-0), #4 Georgia (7-1), #6 Ole Miss (6-1), #10 Alabama (6-1)

• Key Matchups: #3 Texas A&M at #16 Texas, #6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State, #4 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech

• Conference Championship Scenarios: 

  • Texas A&M = win or losses by Alabama and Ole Miss

  • Alabama = win

  • Georgia = Alabama or Texas A&M loss

  • Ole Miss = win + losses by Texas A&M and Alabama

• Favorite: Texas A&M (+140)

* In-conference records