Hey Team 👋

Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a fantastic holiday season. While most of the hype centers around the ball drop at midnight, the action is far from over. We’ve got a full slate of College Football Playoff quarterfinals on deck today, with three marquee matchups set to carry us from morning through night. Let’s break down the spreads, predictions and key storylines for each game.

Letter Rip!

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CFP Quarterfinals

Orange Bowl: #4 Texas Tech vs. #5 Oregon — 12:00 PM

Like the first-round games, most of the quarterfinal games are predicted to be closely contested, and the Orange Bowl is no exception. Though Texas Tech is seeded one spot better than Oregon, the Ducks are favored by 2.5 points. Both teams built strong résumés with statement wins throughout the season. The Red Raiders took care of nearly every ranked opponent they faced (Arizona State being the lone exception), highlighted by two dominant victories over BYU. Oregon followed a similar path, handling most ranked opponents as well, with their only loss coming against No. 1 Indiana. Plus, they dominated JMU in the first round of the CFP. 

Still, neither team has consistently faced the level of competition found elsewhere in the CFP field, which should make for an incredible quarterfinal matchup. This one feels like a true toss-up, and whoever wins the Orange Bowl will take on the winner of Alabama/Indiana.

Rose Bowl: #1 Indiana vs. #9 Alabama — 4:00 PM

On paper, this matchup looks straightforward. A No. 1 seed facing a No. 9 seed should heavily favor Indiana. But the key word there is should. If there’s one program that thrives in chaos, it’s Alabama. 

The Hoosiers enter as 6.5-point favorites, but this is unlikely to unfold as cleanly as the spread suggests. Alabama battled through a significantly tougher regular-season schedule and holds a clear edge in playoff experience, an advantage that’s difficult to overlook in a game of this magnitude. On the other hand, Indiana proved their undefeated season was no fluke when they beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. 

Recent history offers us a reminder that perfection in the regular season doesn’t guarantee postseason success, as Oregon demonstrated last year. Still, with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza under center, Indiana has little reason to panic, even against a fearsome underdog like Alabama. 

Sugar Bowl: #3 Georgia vs. #6 Ole Miss — 8:00 PM

This is the only quarterfinal matchup that feels even somewhat predictable. But even then, the CFP is notorious for bringing a special brand of chaos. Georgia enters as a 6.5-point favorite, and most experts expect the Bulldogs to take care of business in the Big Easy. And given how Georgia has been rolling, that expectation makes sense.

Still, don’t write off Ole Miss just yet. Many (including myself) expected some level of fallout following Lane Kiffin’s departure. Instead, Trinidad Chambliss proved the Rebels are more than capable of standing on their own, leading a dominant first-round win over Tulane. Yes, Tulane and Georgia are vastly different challenges, but Ole Miss showed during the regular season that it can go toe-to-toe with elite SEC competition. 

After seeing the Rebels’ performance under Pete Golding last week, there’s little reason to assume this matchup will be a walkover. While Georgia remains the logical pick, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ole Miss makes things uncomfortable — or even pulls off the upset.